Can we call this a buyer's market? Here's what the data actually says

Published September 18, 2026

Updated September 21, 2026

by Better

Young couple touring a home with their real estate agent.

Is this a buyer's market?

A buyer's market is typically defined by housing economists as one with more than six months of supply at the current sales pace: enough unsold inventory that sellers, not buyers, face the pressure to compromise.

As of August 2026, national supply sits at 4.9 months, according to the National Association of Realtors, the highest level in more than ten years, but still short of that 6-month threshold.

So, the data says we're not quite there yet, but buyers are gaining more negotiating power, especially in some markets.

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What is a buyer's market, actually?

"Buyer's market" gets used loosely, but it has an actual definition, built primarily around one number: months of supply. That's how long it would take to sell every home currently listed at the current sales pace, if no new listings came on the market.

The conventional thresholds:

Under about 4 months of supply: a seller's market. Buyers compete for limited inventory, often bidding above asking price and waiving contingencies.
Roughly 4.5 to 6 months: a balanced market. Neither side has a clear structural advantage.
Above 6 months: a buyer's market. Sellers face more competition from other listings and typically need to negotiate on price, concessions, or timeline to close a deal.

Two supporting numbers also matter: how long homes sit on the market before selling, and what's happening to prices.

In a buyer's market, both days-on-market and price growth tend to soften as sellers compete harder for a smaller pool of buyers.

What the data actually shows right now

The National Association of Realtors' August 2026 report gives the most up-to-date snapshot:

Existing-home sales: 3.98 million (seasonally adjusted annual rate), down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier — the first time sales dipped below the 4 million mark since June 2025.
Inventory: 1.62 million units, up 3.2% from July and 5.9% year-over-year — the first time inventory has topped 1.6 million since November 2019.
Months of supply: 4.9, up from 4.6 in July, and the highest level in more than ten years.
Median existing-home price: $429,100, up 1.6% year-over-year, marking 38 straight months of annual price increases.
Days on market: a median of 31 days, up slightly from 29 in July.

Put together, that's a market where inventory is building faster than it has in years, but prices have not yet responded.

NAR's chief economist described the shift plainly, noting that the growing supply is "giving homebuyers better opportunities to negotiate."

So — is this a buyer's market or not?

By the strict months-of-supply definition, no: 4.9 months is higher than it's been in years, but it's still under the 6-month line that separates "balanced" from "buyer's market."

By the practical experience of shopping for a home right now, the answer is more favorable to buyers than the headline number suggests.

Supply hasn't been this abundant relative to demand in over a decade, first-time buyers made up 30% of August's sales (up from 28% a year ago), and days on market are edging up, both signs that sellers are facing more competition from other listings than they have in years.

The disconnect is price. In a full buyer's market, price growth typically slows or reverses as sellers compete harder. That hasn't happened yet: prices are still rising, just more slowly than in the tightest years of this cycle. That's the central tension in today's resale market: negotiating leverage is shifting toward buyers faster than the price data shows it.

What this actually means if you're buying right now

If you're actively shopping, the practical takeaway isn't "wait for prices to crash." It's that you likely have more room to negotiate than buyers did over the past few years:

Contingencies are more viable. An appraisal contingency or inspection contingency that a seller might have rejected outright in a tighter market is more likely to be accepted now.
Seller concessions are back on the table. Asking a seller to cover part of your closing costs or a rate buydown, once a hard sell in many markets, is a more realistic ask when a seller is competing with other listings. See seller concessions for how these typically work.
You have more time to think. With homes sitting a median of 31 days before selling, you're less likely to face the same-day, over-asking pressure that defined the tightest years of the market.
A counter-offer is a normal part of the process, not a risk to your deal. If a seller counters your initial number, see what a counter-offer means and how it typically plays out.

None of this means you should lowball every listing. Pricing still varies enormously by property and market, so how much to offer on a house is still a case-by-case decision, not a formula. And you'll still want earnest money and a proper inspection in place regardless of how much leverage you think you have.

Markets vary by region

National averages smooth over real regional differences. NAR's August data shows sales fell 4.0% month-over-month in the Northeast, 3.1% in the Midwest, and 1.6% in the South, while the West held flat. Inventory has built up unevenly, too: markets in the South and Midwest have generally seen larger increases in active listings than the tighter Northeast and West.

That means the national "buyer's market conditions are building" story applies more in some regions than others. If you're shopping in a market where inventory has stayed tight, don't assume you have the negotiating room this article describes nationally. Check local listing data or ask an agent directly how long homes are actually sitting in your specific market before you decide on a strategy.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What exactly counts as a "buyer's market?" Is there an actual number, or is it just a vibe?

There's an actual number: months of supply. Above roughly 6 months of supply at the current sales pace is considered a buyer's market; 4.5 to 6 months is balanced; under about 4 months favors sellers. National supply currently sits at 4.9 months.

I keep seeing headlines about a housing slowdown. Does that mean I'll actually get a better deal if I buy now?

It means you likely have more negotiating room than buyers did in recent years, since inventory is at its highest level since 2019. It doesn't mean prices have dropped — the median price is still up 1.6% year-over-year, so "better deal" is more about terms and concessions than a lower sticker price.

I'm planning to make an offer in the next month. Does today's inventory level actually give me room to negotiate?

Nationally, yes, more than at any point in the past several years. Whether it applies to your specific listing depends on how long that home has been on the market and how much competing inventory exists in your area.

If there's more inventory now, why haven't home prices actually dropped?

Supply and price don't move in lockstep, and there's typically a lag. Sellers are slow to cut prices even as competition increases, and demand, while softer, hasn't collapsed: sales are still up 1.6% year-to-date through August compared to the same period in 2025.

How is a buyer's market different from a seller's market, in practical terms for someone shopping right now?

In a seller's market, buyers often compete on price and waive contingencies to win a deal. In a buyer's market, sellers compete on price and terms to attract buyers. Today's conditions sit between the two: more buyer leverage on terms, but not yet a clear price advantage.

I'm looking in the Northeast specifically. Does the national "more buyer leverage" story actually apply to my area?

Less strongly than in the South or Midwest, based on NAR's regional data. The Northeast saw the steepest month-over-month sales decline in August, but that doesn't necessarily mean inventory has built up there at the same pace as regions with more new construction.

What happens if I assume it's a buyer's market and make a lowball offer, but it isn't one where I'm shopping?

You risk losing the property to a more realistic offer, particularly if that specific listing is in a market or price band with tighter competition than the national numbers suggest. Local, listing-specific context matters more than national averages when you're deciding what to actually offer.

My Realtor says inventory is way up this year. Does that actually change what I should offer on a house?

It's a reasonable factor to weigh, but not the only one. How long that specific listing has sat on the market, how it's priced relative to comparable sales, and how much competition exists for it locally all matter more than the national inventory trend alone.

The bottom line

By the strictest definition, this isn't a buyer's market yet: 4.9 months of supply is below the 6-month threshold, and nationally, prices are still rising year-over-year.

But it's the most buyer-friendly set of conditions in more than a decade, with more room to negotiate contingencies, concessions, and timeline than buyers have had in years.

If you're shopping right now, the smartest move is to get the specifics for your actual market rather than relying on the national headline. Getting pre-approved is a useful first step either way, since it tells you your real budget before you start weighing how much leverage you actually have.